Tropical Cyclones, Climate Change, and New York City
After two weeks of refinement, I am proud to be sharing my project statement. This is a broad outline of my final science communication strategy. It will continue to evolve, and I look forward to putting together the final product.
Nearly 60 million people live in coastal counties along the Atlantic and Gulf Coast, at risk of experiencing impacts from tropical cyclones. Additionally, over eight million people reside in New York City, in an area that has been historically ravaged by tropical cyclones. In a changing climate, how will these impacts and the general behavior of these systems evolve?
The amount of tropical cyclones will likely not change. However, the portion of this amount to reach Category 4 and 5 status will increase by about 13%. So, expect to see more storms reaching higher intensity but the amount of storms to remain the same.
Flooding from storm surge, in which tropical cyclones push water onshore, already presents a dangerous situation to coastal residents. In New York City, 400,000 residents are in the one percent annual chance floodplain. As sea levels rise, storm surge flooding will spread further inland. Additionally, rainfall rates are projected to increase by 14%, increasing the likelihood of flooding beyond coastal areas. Flooding was the second highest cause of weather related death in the United States in 2018, exceeding wind, the factor most closely associated with tropical cyclone strength.
Faced with this problem, how can both the government and residents of New York City work to mitigate the impacts? With coastal flooding of paramount concern, efforts should focus on this threat. Since Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which served as a wake-up call for policy makers and coastal residents affected, regulations have been strengthened at all levels of government and engineering initiatives have been examined and undertaken. A sea wall will be built along most of the Staten Island coastline, capable of withstanding coastal flooding of 15.6 feet, two feet higher than that caused by Hurricane Sandy. Projects such as this will save lives and protect property.
Climate measures weather patterns over long periods of time; singular events cannot be attributed directly to climate change. Often, “hype” surrounds tropical cyclones as they threaten communities and gives rise to cursory conclusions. This communications strategy will seek to present the previous three talking points in accordance with the message triangle model, targeting an audience of coastal residents in New York City. Per the US Census, coastal residents trend older and more diverse, so Facebook, which has a large share of older users, and YouTube, which has a wide reach across age groups, will be used in addition to Twitter and Wikipedia.
Visuals showing storm surge inundation and flooding from tropical cyclones will be shared to convey the severity of these impacts. Satellite imagery will be used when referencing tropical cyclone strength. My experiences during Hurricane Sandy can be used anecdotally, but must be framed in order to reduce assumptions that Hurricane Sandy was caused directly by climate change. The ideal time for this campaign is during a period in which tropical cyclones are trending within the new cycle, to counter and clarify the “hype.” However, with climate change a predominant topic in the current discourse, the relevancy of this campaign remains strong.